Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Auto workers will suspend a program that paid workers for no work, and let companies delay health-care payments

From the business week article from this link

Now you really got to be kidding me... According to the article, workers retain 85% of their salaries while laid off. Wow, I would love to retain 85% of my salary while laid off and I could go do a little moonlighting and really start double dipping (being double paid).

I personally own three Toyotas and a Honda. And I am damn proud of it. As what I said earlier, what needs to happen is for these companies to fail (or at least one of them) and whatever is left of the American auto makers will get their fecal matter together.

Well, I think they will eventually fail sooner or later. If they don't, they will become like incompetent government workers. Or government workers will be like incompetent auto workers. Or it will be like a marriage in hell. Who knows...

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

The Fed is determined to fight deflation

Wow... after all these trees getting killing and reports are emerging out as deflation is our economic issue now.

Now does this make any sense to you? If the government is pumping TRILLIONS of dollars into the market and expects the foreigners to sop up additional American debt. As I mentioned before, China is dumping over 600 Billion into their own infrastructure and President Obama is trumping China with 700 Billion into their own infrastructure.

My bet is on GOLD. As I tell my buddies that if the government gets tight about the money supply (which they wont) I am totally screwed because it will bring the price of gold down. On top of this, it actually may bring deflation back into the game because no credit would revolve around the market, and our debts would cost more so the government would not want that.

At least the bright side of a devalued currency is that it would not provide as much incentive to ship our jobs overseas (and I am betting my ass that Obama would push to get our currency devalued).

Here is an interesting video that I stumbled on to...


Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Several billion here, Several billion there, now it's billions everywhere...


This is from today's Marketwatch article:

Fed unveils $800 billion plan to bolster lending, housing

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- With financial markets still not working smoothly two months after almost shutting down, the Federal Reserve unveiled further steps Tuesday aimed at lowering borrowing costs for consumers and home buyers.

This one is beyond me, The fed has to kiss ass to congress to approve a $700 billion bailout package, but how in the hell do they go and pull $800 billion out of their asses and start lending them to the public? I thought that "we the people" would have a say in this... Does this at least have to go through congress? What in the hell is going on???

Now with at least 1.5 TRILLION dollars (and that is not even counting about the billions here and there that they dumped in the market in the beginning of the sub-prime mess) there has got to be some inflation kicking in sooner or later... Check the current currencies, the dollar is losing strength again...

It is interesting that the whole mess of this sub-prime mortgage mess and housing blow up is that banks expanded their lending pool to SUB PRIME borrowers. Would you personally lend someone who has an unstable job or financially irresponsible money? Well during this whole housing bubble, the banks were lending money to those MORONS. I don't believe it's the moron's fault, it's mainly the bank's fault for taking stupid risks to lend to those morons and the banks should get burnt by it. Now the Fed wants to commandeer and lend to those same morons to somehow bail the economy out. Basically what is going to happen is those same morons will eventually default again and the taxpayer will end up with the bill. Again.

My solution to this whole mess is simple. If the incumbent politician voted for the bailout bill (regardless of party), vote against that person. If not, vote for that person. Simple as that.





Monday, November 24, 2008

Do US Treasury bonds deserve an AAA rating?

In some sense, US Treasury bonds do deserve an AAA rating because it is highly unlikely that they will default. However, the difference between the US treasury and some corporate or municipal bond is that the US treasury will just print more money to avoid defaulting.



So what happens when Uncle Ben and King Henry does that. It weakens the dollar, therefore the price of gold and other competing currencies that are not pegged to the dollar goes up. Who gets hosed? Savers. People who think holding US dollars is the "fail-safe" way to invest while they think they are taking zero risk by keeping it under pillow or in a FDIC secured bank account.

According to the website foodtimeline.org, a 18 ounce box of Kellog's frosted flakes costs $1.99 in 1990 and now a 12 ounce box of frosted flakes costs $2.99 in 2008. If you do the math, it's about 11 cents an ounce vs. about 25 cents an ounce, so you are looking at a 130% inflation rate in Kellogs frosted flakes over a period of 18 years.

So in this case, do you really think that the inflation rate is really at 2%? I guess it depends on how you want to gather all the information out there and analyze it for yourself. It depends if you really take the government data at face value, but I would have to estimate that inflation is at least a good 5 percent, but more like at about 7-10 percent. There is a lot of other crap you can analyze... Gas prices, cost of a car, minimum wage, whatever and draw your own conclusion.

Now going back to the bonds, yes I believe it is a minimal risk that a default would occur, but when you redeem your case, you'll get screwed by inflation.

Friday, November 21, 2008

China is getting ready to flip us off (by diversifing into gold)




Article from DailyMarkets.com

China, one of the largest debt holders of America is considering to buy a bungload of gold because the dollar will be going towards the value of toilet paper. Maybe one of these days we will be wiping our asses with the dollar bill compared to toilet paper because it is simply cheaper.

China has 1.9 Trillion in US Dollar reserves. They are about to spend about 600 billion to stimulate their economy by improving their infrastructure. The USA spends 700 billion that IT DOES NOT HAVE to bailout the stupid, and we get nothing for it. At least China has some nice roads and subways to show for it.

They are about to spend a good $229,785,600,000 (229 Billion for 3600 Tons of gold at $800/ounce) to "Diversify" against the US dollar. So in reality, they are dumping an aggregate of about $850 Billion worth of US money on to the market. That will devalue the dollar along with bringing the price of gold and commodities.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Market breaks below the 8000 barrier

For some time I was saying that the DJIA will eventually be dumped to somewhere between the range of 2000 and 4000. Back then, people just laughed at me and thought I was smoking a little too much Maui Wowie.

My original prediction was that the DJIA will bounce from the 8000 level and go back up to the 10000 level. It didnt really go to the 10000 level, but I would say about 9500 for it's high is close enough. I am basically going by the classic "head and shoulders" theory along with my bearish stance due to the overleveraged debt that our country is in.

Now my theory actually is actually coming through. The dow is at 7552 and is on a nasty downward spiral. This recession is not any normal recession, it is the result of the government trying to avoid the previous recessions with over inflating the money supply by making it dirt cheap to borrow. The lesson here is that recessions are normal and it needs to happen, everything goes in cycles and when you F*ck with it, it will eventually F*ck you in the ass when the bubble of the cycle pops. In this case, it is the financial bubble from the "creative financial engineering" that has occured during the last 20 years or so. Eventually people will run out of money and will have to pay the piper and he is coming to either collect or play the repo man.


Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Big Three auto CEOs flew private jets to kiss ass to congress for taxpayer money

Now this really amuses me, The bankrupt three are about to run out of gas and guess how they start kissing ass to congress for money? By flying a PRIVATE JET. Now if they had any faith in the products they sell, wouldn't you think they at least drive in a GM/Ford/Chrysler car? I am sure they have an extra SUV or two laying around somewhere.



Congress: go ahead, make my day... Bail these idiots out. Let's waste more money on the bankrupt three, and whoever fills out a bailout application. I bet my entire portfolio on it that you will bail everyone out. I mean ALL IN, like world series of poker ALL IN. Now if you schmucks actually got your fecal matter together, I'll be trouble and I may need a bailout myself.


Bankrupt Three Bailout

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Great depression coming?




This is an interesting article by Paul Farrell on the marketwatch website.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Well-Great-Depression-2-2011/story.aspx?guid={B28B49B5-EFD1-4941-B57E-A2BA1545BA09}

These 30 signs that he mentions are some very scary signs that the fecal matter has not hit the fan yet. It has to be obvious when the government is squirming about this recession. Here are my .02 cents to the cracks in our ships hull. Don't worry, everything is going to be just fine...

  • America's credit rating may soon be downgraded below AAA.
Imagine what will happen when the foreigners quit buying our treasury bonds. I would stay away from it if I were you
  • Fed refusal to disclose $2 trillion loans, now the new "shadow banking system"
Ever wonder why our M3 money supply is not published?
  • Congress has no oversight of $700 billion, and Paulson's Wall Street Trojan Horse
Does congress have oversight of anything?
  • King Henry Paulson flip-flops on plan to buy toxic bank assets, confusing markets
I think King Henry is confused too
  • Goldman, Morgan lost tens of billions, but planning over $13 billion in bonuses this year
Work Harder! Corporate CEO's depend on you!
  • AIG bails big banks out of $150 billion in credit swaps, protects shareholders before taxpayers
Let's all deliberately not pay our bills and have the government bail us out too!
  • American Express joins Goldman, Morgan as bank holding firms, looking for Fed money
Just call 1-800-UNCLEBEN
  • Treasury sneaks corporate tax credits into bailout giveaway, shifts costs to states
Then the states sneaks the tax upon Joe the Plumber
  • State revenues down, taxes and debt up; hiring, spending, borrowing add even more debt
I thought that was the federal government
  • State, municipal, corporate pensions lost hundreds of billions on derivative swaps
SUCKER!
  • Hedge funds: 610 in 1990, almost 10,000 now. Returns down 15%, liquidations up
Looks like Hedge funds are going back to about 610 again...
  • Consumer debt way up, now at $2.5 trillion; next area for credit meltdowns
Could we have some of the bailout pie now?
  • Fed also plans to provide billions to $3.6 trillion money-market fund industry
What difference does this make now?
  • Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are bleeding cash, want to tap taxpayer dollars
Why dont we let Freddie and Fannie bleed to death. They are already a lost cause.
  • Washington manipulating data: War not $600 billion but estimates actually $3 trillion
ENRON?
  • Hidden costs of $700 billion bailout are likely $5 trillion; plus $1 trillion Street write-offs
Hope your 401K statement is hidden...
  • Commodities down, resource exporters and currencies dropping, triggering a global meltdown
...and that's where the recovery will be. Hey, at least gas is now about 2 bucks/gal. For now...
  • Big three automakers near bankruptcy; unions, workers, retirees will suffer
Well, someone is going to get SCREWED. I don't care if you received your financial engineering degree from Enron University, again someone is going to get screwed.
  • Corporate bond market, both junk and top-rated, slumps more than 25%
Maybe the next bankers will be the mafia and they will use your fingers as collateral.
  • Retailers bankrupt: Circuit City, Sharper Image, Mervyns; mall sales in free fall
You know when the fecal matter hits the fan is when WALMART goes bankrupt.
  • Unemployment heading toward 8% plus; more 1930's photos of soup lines
At least it may solve our immigration problem when the illegal aliens quit coming here because there is no money to be made. Even better yet, we will send our losers to Canada and Mexico.
  • Government policy is dictated by 42,000 myopic, highly paid, greedy lobbyists
Where do I sign up? Does lobbying require any special sk1llz
  • China's sees GDP growth drop, crates $586 billion stimulus; deflation is now global, hitting even Dubai
At least China gets something out of the %586B stimulus plan. All we get out of our $700B stimulus plan is a handful of richer CEO's. Will someone rig their golden parachute?
  • Despite global recession, U.S. trade deficit continues, now at $650 billion
DEFICITS DON'T MATTER!
  • The 800-pound gorillas: Social Security, Medicare with $60 trillion in unfunded liabilities
Again, someone will get screwed when the fecal matter hits the fan. On the bright side, there are many doctors in foreign countries that can provide decent medical care at a decent price.
  • Now 46 million uninsured as medical, drug costs explode
Thanks Uncle George, Viagra for everyone!
  • New-New Deal: U.S. planning billions for infrastructure, adding to unsustainable debt
Why don't we do it China style, screw the banks and invest in infrastructure to stimulate the economy? Again, at least we get something out of it
  • Outgoing leaders handicapping new administration with huge liabilities
Looks like our outgoing leaders are handicapped themselves
  • The "antitaxes" message is a new bubble, a new version of the American
    dream offering a free lunch, no sacrifices, exposing us to more false promises
CHANGE! That's the solution to all our problems! Change, Change and more change! Bring it on! All I am doing is reacting to all this change.

Saturday, November 15, 2008

Bailing the automakers

First of all, I have no clue what in the hell the senate is doing to bail out the automakers and what for. Have you seen the latest crap that the American automakers has put out on the market lately?

This is exhibit A, the Chevy Uplander. Now doesnt that look like a piece of fecal matter. Would you spend at least a good $25,000 on this product that is supposed to be the heartbeat of America?


Exhibit B, the united auto workers. Aint these bunch of morons a liability to the big three? These MORONS are making an average of about $70/hour (according to the Detroit free press). That is nearly TWICE as much as I make and I am a skilled network security engineer. I hereby excercise my freedom to vote with my wallet and I will NEVER buy any American automobile.


I really think the big three needs to become the bankrupt three. Someone will eventually buy them out, get rid of UAW and whatever unions are anchoring the company. From there, it will have a hope of becoming a great company as it once was back in the 50's and 60's. Until then, I think American made cars are the laughing stock until they get their fecal matter together.